Wednesday, May 27, 2009

WCF Game 4 Recap/Game 5 Preview

That was about as good an NBA game as you can choose to go to.

Everything was on the line, the teams were close for most of the game to keep the crowd interested and the home team warmed up and put it away in the 4th quarter.

Nothing could bring me down that night, not the rain, not the cold, not the alternator that I just had replaced going out on me at midnight on my way back home, nothing.

The best part about it is that I truly believe the Nuggets are the better team now.  It's taken 4 games to prove it to me, and things seem to change every game in this series, but the Lakers are a two-man show right now and the Nuggets are a team.  Despite the nicknames and the tattoos and the reputations, the Denver Nuggets are playing the way basketball coaches at every level teach kids to play the game.  Everybody's passing, everybody's taking care of the ball, players are flying out to challenge shooters and are active on the defensive end.  The Nuggets are determined to find the easy shot on offense and make sure there are no easy shots for the Lakers on the other end.

Going into Game 5 tonight, here are some keys that I see:

  • Junior Swish found some playoff mojo in Denver, can he keep it going in LA?  
    If JR makes a couple shots early on, watch out, he could be the difference maker.  As great as it was watching Kob (that's what I'll be calling him from now on) and Melo duking it out in Games 1 and 2, I would love to see some reinforcements from Denver's bench scorers on the road.
  • Speaking of Denver's bench, can they keep up the energy in LA?  
    I'm hoping that the memory of the frenzied Pepsi Center crowd's juice can carry the Denver bench players through Game 5.  A couple great energy plays and rebounds could suck the life out of the Staples Center in a hurry when the bench players take over in the second quarter.
  • Can Melo remember where he left his jump-shot in the Staples Center?  
    It's got to be there somewhere, because it certainly didn't make it back to Denver.  Whether it was his ankle, bad stomach or pressure of leading his team in front of the home crowd, Melo's got to find a way to contribute in order to win Game 5.  It would also help if the referees remembered that it's ok to call fouls on the Lakers when Melo drives into the lane.  I think they just got bored with it since he gets hacked about every time he enters the paint.
  • Will the Lakers get any production from Lamar Odom or Derek Fisher?
     These are the veteran players that are supposed to lead you when you see some adversity, but Odom has continually turtled in pressure situations and Fisher, who was once a deadly, clutch 3-point shooter, just doesn't seem to have it this year.  A big game from either of these guys could quickly tip the scales in favor of the Lakers.
  • Will LA be able to keep Gasol and Bynum happy in the post?  
    Both players were chatting up the media about how they need the ball more, and maybe they're right, but maybe their lack of touches had something to do with Denver's ball denial on defense as well.  Something tells me Phil Jackson doesn't really appreciate his players discussing his flawed game plan in front of the media.
  • Will Phil Jackson be able to find his way back to the Middle Path?  
    All through the Houston series, Phil refused to get riled up about anything.  No comments about the officiating, nothing about his team's lack of killer instinct, didn't worry about the extra games effect on his players for the next round and never showed any sign that he thought the Rockets might pull off the upset.  That all flew out the window on Monday night.  The first time I saw his post-game press conference was in a bar with no audio, but I could tell just by how animated he was that this was a different Phil Jackson.  Turns out I was right, which to me is one of the biggest signs that the Nuggets have truly taken control of this series.  This is the first time Phil has seemed agitated in a long time and I think that's a good thing for Denver.
Can Chauncey keep Denver cool when they're in a position to take control of the game?
In all 4 games of this series, the Nuggets have had opportunities to take control of the game for good.  They've only capitalized on two of those opportunities so far.  Will Monday night's win be the tipping point?  Instead of waiting for Kob's response, will Denver take charge and put the Lakers away?  Personally, I think you'll see the Nuggets respond to the pressure as well as they have this entire post-season.
I don't think there's any doubt that the winner of Game 5 will be well on their way to the NBA Finals, and that there's still a whole lot to learn about these two teams even though we've seen them play each other 4 times in 8 days, so I'm as nervous and excited as ever for this game.  I do think we'll see more defensive focus from the Lakers and a clear attempt to get Gasol and Bynum involved offensively early on.  They're not going to concede defeat after one beat down on the road.  I don't see either team dominating the glass like Denver did on Monday, so I expect that will even out.  

The main difference I see coming into this game is that Denver's bench is riding high with confidence after returning to Denver, and I think we'll see them be effective in their time on the court tonight.  Birdman was back to being Birdman, JR found his range and even added play-making to his repertoire, Linas the Menace has continued joining in the fun for the first time this season, AC managed to make a shot, which is nice, and the best sign that the Nuggets' bench is firing on all cylinders is that Denver even ran a play for Renaldo "Blankman" Balkman!!  In the first half!!

With Denver's bench riding a wave of confidence, and LA's riding a wave of confusion, I think it will be enough for the Nuggets to take control of tonight's game.  That being said, I don't think Kob plans on letting this one slip away either.  All in all I believe this game will end in anguish of biblical proportions for Kob and his followers as the road teams comes away with a tight victory despite the Black Mamba's near heroics - 

Final Score Prediction:  Denver Nuggets 104 - LA Lakers 101

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