Monday, May 4, 2009

Round Deux, Game Duex Preview (Rhymes intended)

Before I begin, I would like to hereby upgrade Dirk's foul on Sunday to a type two Flagrant Gesticulation penalty and fine him 25,000 Deutsche Marks. Enough said on that subject.

After a surprisingly dominant performance by Denver in the paint on Sunday, I feel like the Nuggets will be loose enough for the shooters to warm up a bit on Tuesday night. That being said, I expect to see Karl test the waters with Nene in the post early on to see if he still has the attitude he showed in the second quarter of Game 1. It will be interesting to see what Dallas decides to do defensively against Nene as Erick Dampier might as well have just set up a table and started signing all of the Nene posters he's soon to be featured on.

As far as Dallas' response, I think we'll see a team that's less likely to settle for the long jumper in Game 2. While they're very talented from long-range, a team just cannot expect to win 4 of 7 games when they're taking the majority of their shots from more than 15 feet out. Rick Carlisle pointed to the foul disparity, and if I could, I would point to the Points-in-the-Paint disparity as a response. You're not going to get calls when you're settling for jump shots, and I don't expect the Mavs to do so quite as often in Game 2.

I'm also looking forward to seeing how Denver decides to guard Dirk in Game 2. Despite his early success, he was clearly flustered by the end of the second quarter. I don't know if they'll decide to play him loose again, allowing for the fallaway jumpshots, and switching on screens allowing for the mismatch, but I have a feeling Dirk's going to see a lot of different looks as this series progresses. I think that the penalty assessed to KMart today will only serve to motivate him more, and I'd love to see him come out and play just as hard as he has throughout the postseason, especially when he's matched up against Dirk.

Overall, I expect to see a very different game on Tuesday night. I think Denver will test out the paint offensively, but will ultimately find more success with the outside shooting, and I think Dallas will be far more aggresive on both ends of the court as well as much more disciplined with the ball. I don't think we'll see the dominace of Game 1, but I do think the swagger and home-court success will continue as the Nuggets take a 2-0 lead into Dallas: Denver 104 - Dallas 96

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