Round Deux, Game 3 Preview

It's probably a good thing these teams had 4 days in between games. Incredible foresight by the league to know that Dirk's alleged fiancee would be arrested and Josh Howard's ankle would need some rest. Without those two events, I don't think there's a whole lot more that could be written about this series. Games 1 and 2 followed a nearly identical script. The Nuggets had a few more defensive lapses in Game 2, and their 1st and 2nd quarter dominance flip-flopped, but other than that it was pretty much the same story of a tight game through 3 quarters followed by an embarrassingly dominating 4th quarter by the Nuggets.

I expect to see something different this game, though it remains to be seen exactly what that will be. I keep thinking Dallas will find a way to limit Denver's post production, but that's been very consistent so far, and the Nuggets aren't likely to miss any dunks just because they're playing on the road. I would think that outside shooting would be the main statistic that would change as a playoff series shifts from one city to the other, but so far in this series, Dallas has been the better outside shooting team by a long shot. Unless Erick Dampier finds a way to get rid of the cement blocks on his feet or Ryan Hollins and Brandon Bass bulk up to the point that they can consistently challenge Denver's post players, I just don't see the story changing when it comes to post play.

I believe the "distractions" surrounding the Mavs will only serve to help the team focus especially with as many veteran leaders as there are on the team(JET, Dirk, JKidd, etc.) so I think we'll see a Dallas team hungry to prove themselves in a series in which they've looked entirely overmatched, but until they prove they can flip the script, I just can't see things ending up any different.

While not being much of an X's and O's guy, I think we'll see something new from Dallas as far as defending Nene in a way that doesn't increase the Nuggets' chances of second chances on offense. I think we'll see Denver test out whatever scheme Dallas comes up with for that. I think Dallas will be happy to zone up until Denver's shooters prove they need to do otherwise and I think Denver's shooters will start hitting some shots as the pressure begins to lift from their shoulders. Not having the home crowd will certainly lower the energy level in the 4th quarter for the Nuggets, but in the back of every player's mind will be the two dominating 4th quarters of Games 1 and 2, so there's absolutely nothing that comes to mind that makes me think Game 3 will be much different.

Overall, I guess I'll give Dallas a slight boost thanks to strong fan support and a very good home court record, but I'm going to have to go with another Nuggets victory as they can only stay cold from long-range for so long.

Denver 104 - Dallas 98