Game Preview: Dec. 5, 2009, Nuggets vs. Spurs

This is a biggie

Since the Miami game turned out to be more of a pop quiz than a test for the Nuggets, tonights game against the Spurs in San Antonio will likely prove to be the first time this team has been truly tested in a looooooooong time. The Spurs don't have an elite record to start the year, but turned in a solid performance in a loss against Boston a few nights ago and if Michael Finley had been wearing shoes 2 sizes smaller, they had a good chance at coming away with a win in that game as well. Despite their early struggles, this is a team that many predicted to be the one with the best chance at unseating the Lakers in the Western Conference this year, so it will certainly be a challenge to beat them on the road. I have 5 questions leading into this game that I hope can be answered by the end of the night, they are as follows:

• How will the Spurs choose to defend Melo? With longtime defensive stopper Bruce Bowen no longer around, who's going to draw the unenviable task of trying to guard the Western Conference's reigning Player of the Month? Richard Jefferson will line up across from him, but has never been known as much of a defensive stopper. Looking at the roster, I really don't see a single player with the size and quickness combination to do it, so this will be interesting to see.

• How will the Nuggets contain Tony Longoria? Chauncey has had his issues with quicker point guards so far this season, so it's going to take a team effort to keep Mr. Eva Longoria from having a big game. The biggest asset the Nuggets have here is the athleticism of Nene, Birdman and K Mart. Assuming Parker makes his way past his initial defender a few times tonight, he'll still have to find a way to get his shots over the Nuggets' high flying trio of frontcourt players. He's a sneaky one, and usually manages to get his points, but this match-up should be a fun one to watch with the Nuggets' big guys playing as well as they have been defensively recently.

• Will Poppovich play any of his regular starters? Last season, when the Spurs were a little banged up and it seemed clear that the Nuggets were playing at a higher level overall, Coach Pop decided to hold out his best 3 players in a ploy to keep Denver from gaining a psychological edge by beating a full-strength Spurs team. The plan backfired big time when that game turned out to be the difference in playoff seeding at the end of the regular season. With the Nuggets firing on all cylinders at the moment and the Spurs still finding their groove, are there any other mind games that Pop has up his sleeves? It will be interesting to see.

• Can the Nuggets prove that they are winners on the road? Much has been made of Denver's "struggles" away from the Pepsi Center this season, but as you can tell by the quotation marks, I don't subscribe to this line of thinking. While they have yet to see many of the NBA's elite, logistically, the Nuggets schedule has been ridiculous to start the year. 3 of the 4 road losses came against solid teams on the Nuggets 6 game road trip that contained 3 sets of back-to-back games, the other road loss being the indefensible loss to the Clippers at the Staple's Center. I contend that the Nuggets have yet to have a chance to really prove what kind of road team they're going to be this season, and tonight's contest will go a long way towards showing us that.

And finally, the most important question of all...

• What sounds better, Manu Bartokomous or Balki Ginobili? And as a secondary question, who would his "Larry Appleton" be? As for the initial question, Balki Ginobili clearly has a better sound and flow to it, but Manu Bartokomous tends to make the absurdity of the name a little more clear. Maybe I'll go with Balku Bartokonobili. For the second question, you could say it's Tony Parker because they're partners in crime, or Coach Pop because he's always telling him what to do. Personally though, I'm going with Tim Duncan since the "Tim Duncan Face" reminds me a lot of Larry Appleton's expressions of exasperation.

• Pop Culture Bonus Question for readers: What popular sit-com was a direct offshoot of Perfect Stranger?

I won't be able to post a Recap after the game tonight, so I'm hoping that the answers to all of these questions will be evident by the time the final buzzer sounds. I think this is a good match up for us at this point, we have the bigs to limit Duncan and protect the rim against Parker, we have a stopper in Afflalo to limit Ginobili, and I think Melo will have a much easier time guarding Richard Jefferson than Jefferson will trying to stop Melo. It's looking good on paper and hopefully tonight we'll see a passing of the torch as the Spurs, despite their best off-season efforts give way to the new Western Conference powerhouse, our Denver Nuggets.

Game Prediction: Nuggets 112, Spurs 104

A Dream Fulfilled and A Game 3 Preview/Prediction Posted

I don't have much time to post a preview today as I'm DJ'ing a wedding today in an hour and 15 minutes under the alias "DJ JD aka The Palindrome", but I wanted to throw up a quick post for a couple reasons.

One is that this could be the #1 game in the history of Nuggets' hoops.  I realize we throw around superlatives like crazy these days, in fact, this might be the most superlativest time in history, but I still think that with all the elements involved, this could be the most exciting NBA game ever played in Denver.  I had to switch out my ticket for tonight's game thanks to my DJ gig, but I can't even imagine what it's going to be like in the Can this evening.  I feel confident that the Nuggets will take care of business.  It will be another hard fought game, but I don't think this one comes down to the last shot:  Denver 112 - LA 104. 

Now on to the second, and most personally exciting reason for this post.  A friend of mine directed me to this story in the Denver Post about Linas Kleiza.  In my initial post I spoke of my intention for this blog.  Above all of the normal things I wanted to get out of this blog was the dispersal of my favorite nicknames that nobody else was using: Linas the Menace and The Blankman (Renaldo Balkman).  After seeing Linas the Menace used in the comment section of a Denver Post story online, I was pretty happy, but this...  this is a dream come true.  An objective completed.  It's in print.  It may not be my story, but my nickname has been published and I'm hoping that's just the beginning.  I suspect it will catch on like wildfire, especially if the Menace's hot shooting continues tonight.  I'm glad you could all be a part of this special moment.

I'm the luckiest man in the world!

And so it begins...

Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, no teams dominated like the Cavs and the Nuggets.  Cleveland barely broke a sweat winning both series' in the minimum 8 games.  Denver let their oppponents hang around a couple times, but ultimately posted the largest scoring margin through the first two rounds in playoff history.

You hear a lot about how a playoff series doesn't begin until a team wins on the road.  Well I say the playoffs have just begun for these two teams after tasting defeat for the first time early in a series.  I haven't followed the Cavs reaction much after their devastating loss, but I've been very impressed with Denver's maturity and professionalism following Tuesday night's last-minute defeat.

This is the first dose of adversity and the first true test of the 2009 playoffs for both of these teams.  Cleveland has much more reason to be scared after losing on their home-court, but they also have the best player in basketball, so you can't be too worried.  Denver is much more of a wildcard.  Many "experts" probably expect a significant drop-off from the Nuggets' Game 1 effort and enthusiasm, but everything I've seen so far the spring tells me that's not going to be the case.  Denver lost a game in New Orleans by two that it could have won, they lost a game in Dallas by two that they should have won and now the same thing has happened in Los Angeles.

The only difference this time around is that it happened in Game 1 instead of Game 3 or 4, so if recent history tells me anything, it's that not only will there not be a drop-off, but there will be a significant increase in focus, effort and team-play.  Keeping in mind the current opponent is undoubtedly more talented than Dallas or New Orleans, I still see Game 2 as a great chance for Denver to get a win on the road and even their playoff road record at 3-3.  A win tonight would be a great way to swing some momentum as the series shifts to Denver where the Nuggets have been unbeatable for over 2 months now.  It would make the Lakers think a little more about how many games they've played over the last couple weeks.  It would make the Lakers think a little more about how the altitude is going to affect their tired legs.  It would be just what the Nuggets need to take control of a series that most "experts" are now ready to hand right back to LA.

If I can see these things, then the Denver Nugget organization can clearly see these things and the players will be well prepared for a game that holds a wild amount of significance for this team.  With a couple home games coming before a return to Staples Center, by no means do I think this series will be over if the Nuggets can't pull out a victory tonight, but a win tonight will provide a significant boost throughout the rest of the series and I'm looking forward to watching this team respond to their first real challenge of the playoffs.

I don't see Melo scoring 40 tonight, but I see the bench playing much stronger.  Kobe may score 40 again, but I don't see Fisher and Ariza hitting every significant 3-pointer that they take.  Gasol, Odom and Bynum may have better offensive performances, but I don't see them dominating the offensive glass the way they did in Game 1 and most importantly, I don't see the Nuggets choking away another chance for victory in Game 2.  When the game is on the line, the ball will be in Billups or Melo's hands and if that's the case, I like our chances.

Game 2 Prediction: Denver 111 - Los Angeles 104

Western Conference Finals Preview

This is how it should be.

As nice as it would have been to take on a depleted Rockets team, keep home-court advantage and sweep through the Western Conference Playoffs as the favorite in every round, this is the match-up the Nuggets needed in order to be taken serious as a contender.

Much has been said of Denver's easy path to Round 3 of the 2009 Playoffs, and about how they have yet to really deal with any adversity, but I think that's more due to the performance of the Nuggets rather than the shortcomings of their opponents.  New Orleans was clearly not playing great hoops in the first round, but I would certainly take them in a 7-game series with the tanking Jazz team that took on the Lakers in Round 1.  Dallas didn't look up to the challenge against Denver, but had been playing their best ball of the season leading up and in to their first round victory over San Antonio.  There's no question in my mind that Dallas would have been able to knock off the McGrady and Yao-less Rockets in less than the 7 games it took L.A.

We've been watching a Denver Nuggets team that has embraced and conquered every challenge laid in their path this post-season, and playing the Lakers will just be the next on the list.  I don't doubt the talent that Los Angeles brings to the table.  Their front-line is very formidble and it will take the best effort from Denver's big guys to match up with them.  Phil Jackson will not be rattled in the way Rick Carlisle was, and will have his team prepared as far as X's and O's. Kobe is easily the best all-around talent in the Western Conference and won't be settling for fall-away jump shots nearly as often as Dirk was, but I think these are the things that will keep this Nuggets team focused.  

My biggest worry in the playoffs has been how the Nuggets will respond to their continuing success.  All season long, they've been able to play the "Nobody Believes In Us" card, and matching up with the Lakers will allow that to continue for a little while longer.  Denver only managed one victory over L.A. in the regular season, but if you look at the line-ups in each of the 4 games, you'll see that one team or the other had somebody significant missing in each game.  The season-opener came before the Billups trade and before Dahntay Jones had made his way into the starting lineup; the second game featured Vlad Radmonovic starting for LA and Birdman missing the game for Denver; game 3, Denver's dominating victory came with Bynum sitting out and the final regular season game was played without Kenyon Martin, who is unquestionably the Nuggets' defensive spark plug.

There's no more time for excuses now.  It doesn't matter who's hurt, who's tired, who got the better match-ups and who didn't, it's all about showing it on the court.  The Lakers have been written into the Finals in ink since the start of the season, and they've been playing as if they believe it's a foregone conclusion so far in the playoffs as well.  Denver has yet to fall behind in a 2009 playoff game by more than 11 and has yet to lose a 2009 playoff game by more than 2.  I don't expect either of those numbers to stand up throughout this next series, but just as the Nuggets' play has remained consistent, my series prediction will stay the same as I'm looking forward to stealing one of these first two in the Staples Center and continuing the dominant play at home:  

Nuggets in 6.

Round Deux, Game 3 Preview

It's probably a good thing these teams had 4 days in between games. Incredible foresight by the league to know that Dirk's alleged fiancee would be arrested and Josh Howard's ankle would need some rest. Without those two events, I don't think there's a whole lot more that could be written about this series. Games 1 and 2 followed a nearly identical script. The Nuggets had a few more defensive lapses in Game 2, and their 1st and 2nd quarter dominance flip-flopped, but other than that it was pretty much the same story of a tight game through 3 quarters followed by an embarrassingly dominating 4th quarter by the Nuggets.

I expect to see something different this game, though it remains to be seen exactly what that will be. I keep thinking Dallas will find a way to limit Denver's post production, but that's been very consistent so far, and the Nuggets aren't likely to miss any dunks just because they're playing on the road. I would think that outside shooting would be the main statistic that would change as a playoff series shifts from one city to the other, but so far in this series, Dallas has been the better outside shooting team by a long shot. Unless Erick Dampier finds a way to get rid of the cement blocks on his feet or Ryan Hollins and Brandon Bass bulk up to the point that they can consistently challenge Denver's post players, I just don't see the story changing when it comes to post play.

I believe the "distractions" surrounding the Mavs will only serve to help the team focus especially with as many veteran leaders as there are on the team(JET, Dirk, JKidd, etc.) so I think we'll see a Dallas team hungry to prove themselves in a series in which they've looked entirely overmatched, but until they prove they can flip the script, I just can't see things ending up any different.

While not being much of an X's and O's guy, I think we'll see something new from Dallas as far as defending Nene in a way that doesn't increase the Nuggets' chances of second chances on offense. I think we'll see Denver test out whatever scheme Dallas comes up with for that. I think Dallas will be happy to zone up until Denver's shooters prove they need to do otherwise and I think Denver's shooters will start hitting some shots as the pressure begins to lift from their shoulders. Not having the home crowd will certainly lower the energy level in the 4th quarter for the Nuggets, but in the back of every player's mind will be the two dominating 4th quarters of Games 1 and 2, so there's absolutely nothing that comes to mind that makes me think Game 3 will be much different.

Overall, I guess I'll give Dallas a slight boost thanks to strong fan support and a very good home court record, but I'm going to have to go with another Nuggets victory as they can only stay cold from long-range for so long.

Denver 104 - Dallas 98